MT Morning Brief · 2026-09-25

VIX Weakness Keeps Risk-On Tone in Play — September 25, 2026

Published pre-open at 8:00 AM ET. Outcome reviewed 2026-09-25.

The report starts from a bullish tape and then checks whether price, volatility, and macro inputs agree. VIX weakness is carrying the narrative into the open. Index participation matters here because all four major index futures are positive. The sharpest snapshot move is in VIX at -3.96%. NQ is leading the equity-index group at +0.65%. Intermarket checks are VIX -3.96%, DXY -0.31%, TNX +0.94%. Market-risk scan flags Rates and inflation risk: Rates and inflation risk: ‘We were wrong.’ Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now. Headline flow is being treated as context, led by Cipher Digital stock jumps after extending Barber Lake lease. The cleanest invalidation point is Rates and inflation risk may drive cross-asset positioning.

Bias

Bullish

Confidence

70 / 100

Key driver

VIX weakness

Primary risk

Rates and inflation risk may drive cross-asset positioning.

ES outcome

Correct (+0.14%)

NQ outcome

Incorrect (-0.25%)

Reviewed

2026-09-25

Get the Next Brief at 8 AM ET View Full Sample

About This Record

Every MT Morning Brief keeps its original timestamp, bias, and confidence score. ES and NQ outcomes are reviewed separately after the session using the 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM ET move; neutral readings are excluded from directional scoring. Premium subscribers receive the full narrative, key driver, risk map, and watch conditions before the cash open.

← 2026-09-24 All issues 2026-09-28 →

MT Morning Brief is market commentary, not trade recommendations. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Directional accuracy is reviewed after each session; neutral readings are excluded from directional scoring. See the scoring methodology and terms.